1-KC Luke Joeckel, OT
This pick won't be surprising. The Chiefs franchised Brandon Albert, but they have no right tackle and only have Albert for a year. Joeckel will play right tackle, and then switch over to the left side when Albert leaves. It won't be Fisher, because Joeckel is the proven commodity, he's more talented, and has been connected to the Chiefs more.
This pick won't be surprising. The Chiefs franchised Brandon Albert, but they have no right tackle and only have Albert for a year. Joeckel will play right tackle, and then switch over to the left side when Albert leaves. It won't be Fisher, because Joeckel is the proven commodity, he's more talented, and has been connected to the Chiefs more.
2-JAC Geno Smith, QB
The Jaguars sent everyone to Smith's pro day. The pick will be Smith for two reasons-Blaine Gabbert and Gus Bradley. Blaine Gabbert is awful and has no potential. Gabbert (or Henne if he wins the starting job) will continue to make the Jaguars passing pitiful, so teams will stack the box against MJD, and their offense will be a joke again. Gus Bradley was recently hired, and when bad teams hire new head coaches, those head coaches usually get a franchise QB to build around. The Jaguars didn't get one in the offseason, so they must think Smith is a franchise quarterback.
The Jaguars sent everyone to Smith's pro day. The pick will be Smith for two reasons-Blaine Gabbert and Gus Bradley. Blaine Gabbert is awful and has no potential. Gabbert (or Henne if he wins the starting job) will continue to make the Jaguars passing pitiful, so teams will stack the box against MJD, and their offense will be a joke again. Gus Bradley was recently hired, and when bad teams hire new head coaches, those head coaches usually get a franchise QB to build around. The Jaguars didn't get one in the offseason, so they must think Smith is a franchise quarterback.
3-OAK Sharrif Floyd, DT
Oakland is a mess at many positions, so they could be looking to take the best player available, and that's Floyd. Floyd also fills a huge need, because they lost Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly this offseason and brought in Pat Sims and Vance Walker. Pat Sims isn't terrible, but Vance Walker shouldn't be starting. Sharrif Floyd is an excellent pass rusher and a very talented defensive tackle who can make a difference immediately.
Oakland is a mess at many positions, so they could be looking to take the best player available, and that's Floyd. Floyd also fills a huge need, because they lost Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly this offseason and brought in Pat Sims and Vance Walker. Pat Sims isn't terrible, but Vance Walker shouldn't be starting. Sharrif Floyd is an excellent pass rusher and a very talented defensive tackle who can make a difference immediately.
4-PHI Eric Fisher, OT
Todd Herremans is best suited to play guard, not right tackle, and Dennis Kelly is best suited to not play. Left tackle Jason Peters is coming off a torn Achilles. Tackle is a huge need if Herremans plays guard or Peters isn't at full health, and Eric Fisher is the most talented player available. I've seen Geno Smith, Star Lotulelei, Dion Jordan and Dee Millner here, but none make sense. Millner is nowhere near Fisher's talent, Dion Jordan played for Chip Kelly, but the Eagles already have Trent Cole, Brandon Graham and Conner Barwin, all starting caliber offensive linemen. The Eagles just signed Isaac Sopoaga to play nose tackle, and they have Fletcher Cox and Cedric Thornton at end. Taking Geno Smith would make sense, but he's off the board here.
Todd Herremans is best suited to play guard, not right tackle, and Dennis Kelly is best suited to not play. Left tackle Jason Peters is coming off a torn Achilles. Tackle is a huge need if Herremans plays guard or Peters isn't at full health, and Eric Fisher is the most talented player available. I've seen Geno Smith, Star Lotulelei, Dion Jordan and Dee Millner here, but none make sense. Millner is nowhere near Fisher's talent, Dion Jordan played for Chip Kelly, but the Eagles already have Trent Cole, Brandon Graham and Conner Barwin, all starting caliber offensive linemen. The Eagles just signed Isaac Sopoaga to play nose tackle, and they have Fletcher Cox and Cedric Thornton at end. Taking Geno Smith would make sense, but he's off the board here.
5-DET Lane Johnson, OT
3 offensive tackles in the top 5? It may seem crazy, but it makes sense. Jeff Backus retired, while Reilly Reiff struggled at right tackle and looked more like a guard. Whether or not they move Reiff inside, they have no left tackle. Dion Jordan doesn't fit the Lions' scheme, so this pick has to come down to Ezekiel Ansah and Lane Johnson. Both are raw, but they're freak athletes. Lane Johnson has got a higher floor than Ansah, and he fills a bigger need. Johnson's athleticism will also be a huge help against Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers.
3 offensive tackles in the top 5? It may seem crazy, but it makes sense. Jeff Backus retired, while Reilly Reiff struggled at right tackle and looked more like a guard. Whether or not they move Reiff inside, they have no left tackle. Dion Jordan doesn't fit the Lions' scheme, so this pick has to come down to Ezekiel Ansah and Lane Johnson. Both are raw, but they're freak athletes. Lane Johnson has got a higher floor than Ansah, and he fills a bigger need. Johnson's athleticism will also be a huge help against Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers.
6-CLE DeMarcus Milliner, CB
If Lane Johnson is still on the board, this pick will be traded faster than you can say Miami Dolphins. With Johnson off the board this pick is a lot less valuable. The most talented players on the board are Dion Jordan and Dee Milliner. The Browns signed Paul Kruger and they have Jabaal Sheard, so Jordan makes no sense. With Milliner and Joe Haden, passing against the Browns will be a miserable experience.
If Lane Johnson is still on the board, this pick will be traded faster than you can say Miami Dolphins. With Johnson off the board this pick is a lot less valuable. The most talented players on the board are Dion Jordan and Dee Milliner. The Browns signed Paul Kruger and they have Jabaal Sheard, so Jordan makes no sense. With Milliner and Joe Haden, passing against the Browns will be a miserable experience.
7-ARI Dion Jordan, OLB
The 4 biggest needs on the Cardinals are rush linebacker, tight end, tackle, and quarterback. Tyler Eifert doesn't have anywhere close to Jordan's talent, and Fluker and Nassib would be huge reaches. Lorenzo Alexander is their current starter across from Sam Acho, but he was a backup in Washington, and he's getting backup money. Dion Jordan is fast, athletic, and would be a huge help to the Cardinals' pass rush.
The 4 biggest needs on the Cardinals are rush linebacker, tight end, tackle, and quarterback. Tyler Eifert doesn't have anywhere close to Jordan's talent, and Fluker and Nassib would be huge reaches. Lorenzo Alexander is their current starter across from Sam Acho, but he was a backup in Washington, and he's getting backup money. Dion Jordan is fast, athletic, and would be a huge help to the Cardinals' pass rush.
8-BUF Tavon Austin, WR
Bills General Manager Buddy Nix doesn't grasp the concept of a smokescreen. When he says something, you can take it at face value, so when he said he wants a wide receiver and a quarterback, I believe him. It also makes sense, because T.J. Graham shouldn't start. He brought in Kevin Kolb, who played pretty well in the couple games where he was healthy, but he still might draft a QB to compete with Kolb. However, one of Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, and E.J. Manuel will fall to the Bills in the second, and the gap between those guys is tiny, so it doesn't make sense to take a QB here. On the other hand, the gap between Tavon Austin and Robert Woods or Quinton Patton is huge. Austin is a small, speedy guy who reminds me of Mike Wallace, and he'd be a great complement to Steve Johnson.
Bills General Manager Buddy Nix doesn't grasp the concept of a smokescreen. When he says something, you can take it at face value, so when he said he wants a wide receiver and a quarterback, I believe him. It also makes sense, because T.J. Graham shouldn't start. He brought in Kevin Kolb, who played pretty well in the couple games where he was healthy, but he still might draft a QB to compete with Kolb. However, one of Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, and E.J. Manuel will fall to the Bills in the second, and the gap between those guys is tiny, so it doesn't make sense to take a QB here. On the other hand, the gap between Tavon Austin and Robert Woods or Quinton Patton is huge. Austin is a small, speedy guy who reminds me of Mike Wallace, and he'd be a great complement to Steve Johnson.
9-NYJ Star Lotulelei, DT
Antonio Garay was signed as a backup, while Kendrick Ellis shouldn't start. That said, the Jets have plenty of other holes on their roster (RT, TE, FS, MLB and QB), so they'll probably look for the best player available, and at this point that's Lotulelei. Lotulelei is a very disruptive run defender and a solid pass rusher too. He has the versatility that Rex Ryan covets, so Ryan will enjoy finding different ways to utilize Lotulelei's many talents.
Antonio Garay was signed as a backup, while Kendrick Ellis shouldn't start. That said, the Jets have plenty of other holes on their roster (RT, TE, FS, MLB and QB), so they'll probably look for the best player available, and at this point that's Lotulelei. Lotulelei is a very disruptive run defender and a solid pass rusher too. He has the versatility that Rex Ryan covets, so Ryan will enjoy finding different ways to utilize Lotulelei's many talents.
10-TEN Xavier Rhodes, CB
The Titans are hoping Dee Milliner falls here, but that's unlikely. They have a talented front seven and two good safeties, as well as a solid group of wideouts, Jake Locker, and CJ1K. With no Milliner, this pick will come down to a guard, a tight end, or a corner. They signed Andy Levitre, a great guard, but they also brought in Chris Spencer and Robert Turner, both starting caliber players. I've seen a guard here a lot, but it just doesn't make sense. Tyler Eifert doesn't have top ten talent, and he's a huge risk. Xavier Rhodes is a top ten talent,at least this year. He's a great cover corner, and he would fill a huge need.
The Titans are hoping Dee Milliner falls here, but that's unlikely. They have a talented front seven and two good safeties, as well as a solid group of wideouts, Jake Locker, and CJ1K. With no Milliner, this pick will come down to a guard, a tight end, or a corner. They signed Andy Levitre, a great guard, but they also brought in Chris Spencer and Robert Turner, both starting caliber players. I've seen a guard here a lot, but it just doesn't make sense. Tyler Eifert doesn't have top ten talent, and he's a huge risk. Xavier Rhodes is a top ten talent,at least this year. He's a great cover corner, and he would fill a huge need.
11-SD Ezekiel Ansah, OLB
Shaun Phillips left in free agency, and he generated most of San Diego's pass rush. Melvin Ingram looks like a sunk cost, but Ansah is freakishly athletic and has huge potential. Ansah has a low football IQ, because he hasn't been playing for very long, but he can be a very disruptive force once he develops. I've seen offensive players mocked here nearly exclusively, Danario Alexander played very well at the end of the season, Malcolm Floyd is a capable 2nd wide reciever, and they've also got Eddie Royal in the slot and now healthy Vincent Brown to top it off. THey filled the holes in their offensive line through free agency, and they must think Jeromey Clary and King Dunlap are starters.
Shaun Phillips left in free agency, and he generated most of San Diego's pass rush. Melvin Ingram looks like a sunk cost, but Ansah is freakishly athletic and has huge potential. Ansah has a low football IQ, because he hasn't been playing for very long, but he can be a very disruptive force once he develops. I've seen offensive players mocked here nearly exclusively, Danario Alexander played very well at the end of the season, Malcolm Floyd is a capable 2nd wide reciever, and they've also got Eddie Royal in the slot and now healthy Vincent Brown to top it off. THey filled the holes in their offensive line through free agency, and they must think Jeromey Clary and King Dunlap are starters.
12-MIA D.J. Fluker, OT
Unlike the Chargers,the Dolphins have done next to nothing on their offensive line (they brought in guard Lance Louis). They lost Jake Long this offseason, so they need a franchise left tackle. Jonathan Martin showed some promise last season, but if they move him to left tackle, they will have no adequate right tackle. Fluker is a great run blocker and he shut down Barkevious Mingo's pass rush 1 on 1. Their crop of safeties (Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons) is weak, but they started last year, unlike potential tackle starter Will Yeatman.
Unlike the Chargers,the Dolphins have done next to nothing on their offensive line (they brought in guard Lance Louis). They lost Jake Long this offseason, so they need a franchise left tackle. Jonathan Martin showed some promise last season, but if they move him to left tackle, they will have no adequate right tackle. Fluker is a great run blocker and he shut down Barkevious Mingo's pass rush 1 on 1. Their crop of safeties (Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons) is weak, but they started last year, unlike potential tackle starter Will Yeatman.
13-TB Sheldon Richardson, DT
Gerald McCoy has been stellar, but they have no one next to him. Picking Sheldon Richardson would fill their front seven's only hole and make this front seven even better than last year. Tampa has a miserable secondary, but don't look for them to pick Kenny Vaccaro here. They spent last years 7th overall pick on Mark Barron, who's played great. They also signed Dashon Goldson, an elite safety who was a key part of San Francisco's defense. If Milliner and Rhodes are gone, the only way that the Bucs can turn this pick into secondary help is by trading it to the Jets for Darrelle Revis. It would be a huge reach to take Desmond Trufant here because he's far less talented than Richardson, who's proven and can be an impact player immediately.
Gerald McCoy has been stellar, but they have no one next to him. Picking Sheldon Richardson would fill their front seven's only hole and make this front seven even better than last year. Tampa has a miserable secondary, but don't look for them to pick Kenny Vaccaro here. They spent last years 7th overall pick on Mark Barron, who's played great. They also signed Dashon Goldson, an elite safety who was a key part of San Francisco's defense. If Milliner and Rhodes are gone, the only way that the Bucs can turn this pick into secondary help is by trading it to the Jets for Darrelle Revis. It would be a huge reach to take Desmond Trufant here because he's far less talented than Richardson, who's proven and can be an impact player immediately.
14-CAR Kenny Vaccaro, S
The only question about Vaccaro is if he can play over the top, which he didn't last year. He did that his junior season, and did it well. Vaccaro is sure to be an elite safety both against the run and the pass. Haruki Nakamura can't start, and safety and cornerback are Carolina's biggest needs. Trufant is still a reach, as is a badly needed receiver upgrade like Cordarelle Patterson. I've often seen Tyler Eifert here, but he doesn't have Kenny Vaccaro's talent and doesn't fill a need. Greg Olsen has been solid; Newton needs a wide receiver to replace Brandon LaFell, not a tight end to replace Olsen.
The only question about Vaccaro is if he can play over the top, which he didn't last year. He did that his junior season, and did it well. Vaccaro is sure to be an elite safety both against the run and the pass. Haruki Nakamura can't start, and safety and cornerback are Carolina's biggest needs. Trufant is still a reach, as is a badly needed receiver upgrade like Cordarelle Patterson. I've often seen Tyler Eifert here, but he doesn't have Kenny Vaccaro's talent and doesn't fill a need. Greg Olsen has been solid; Newton needs a wide receiver to replace Brandon LaFell, not a tight end to replace Olsen.
15-NO Barkevious Mingo, OLB
The Saints have a great secondary, especially since their addition of Keenan Lewis. They're making the transition to the 3-4, which doesn't make much sense with their personnel They don't have a rush linebacker on their roster, a key element of the 3-4. Jonathan Vilma will play one outside linebacker position, but he has 10.5 sacks in his 9 year career. On the other side, they have Junior Galette and Victor Butler, who both are backups. If Mingo's gone they'll probably take Jarvis Jones; their strategy has to be "best rush linebacker available". Mingo ran a 4.58 40, and plays even faster than that. He struggles some in run support, but has the athleticism to blow by offensive linemen.
The Saints have a great secondary, especially since their addition of Keenan Lewis. They're making the transition to the 3-4, which doesn't make much sense with their personnel They don't have a rush linebacker on their roster, a key element of the 3-4. Jonathan Vilma will play one outside linebacker position, but he has 10.5 sacks in his 9 year career. On the other side, they have Junior Galette and Victor Butler, who both are backups. If Mingo's gone they'll probably take Jarvis Jones; their strategy has to be "best rush linebacker available". Mingo ran a 4.58 40, and plays even faster than that. He struggles some in run support, but has the athleticism to blow by offensive linemen.
16-STL Chance Warmack, G
Interior linemen aren't valued very highly. In 2010, Mike Iupati fell to 17th and Maurkice Pouncey to 18th. In 2011, Mike Pouncey fell to 15th, and in 2012, David DeCastro didn't go until 24th. That said, if Warmack falls to 16th, the Rams won't hesitate to grab him. To protect Sam Bradford the Rams have Jake Long, Rodger Saffold, and nothing in between. Not only will he keep Sam Bradford from getting pummeled his stellar run blocking will also help mask Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead's deficiencies. Warmack's run blocking is the reason Manti Te'o seemed absent from the National Championship. Warmack won't buck the trend and go as high as number 7 or 8, but he's a great fit in St. Louis.
Interior linemen aren't valued very highly. In 2010, Mike Iupati fell to 17th and Maurkice Pouncey to 18th. In 2011, Mike Pouncey fell to 15th, and in 2012, David DeCastro didn't go until 24th. That said, if Warmack falls to 16th, the Rams won't hesitate to grab him. To protect Sam Bradford the Rams have Jake Long, Rodger Saffold, and nothing in between. Not only will he keep Sam Bradford from getting pummeled his stellar run blocking will also help mask Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead's deficiencies. Warmack's run blocking is the reason Manti Te'o seemed absent from the National Championship. Warmack won't buck the trend and go as high as number 7 or 8, but he's a great fit in St. Louis.
17-PIT Jarvis Jones, OLB
James Harrison left in free agency, and Jason Worilds doesn't have the talent to replace him. Jarvis Jones has some work ethic issues, but Dick LeBeau should straighten that out. Jones isn't great in run support, but he's an extraordinarily gifted pass rusher. Joens plays a lot like Harrison and would be a great replacement for him. I've seen a nose tackle and wide receiver here. The Steelers will be looking for a nose tackle in the second round, but their isn't one who provides value here. The Steelers resigned Emmanuel Sanders and have Antonio Brown, so a wide receiver isn't a huge need.
James Harrison left in free agency, and Jason Worilds doesn't have the talent to replace him. Jarvis Jones has some work ethic issues, but Dick LeBeau should straighten that out. Jones isn't great in run support, but he's an extraordinarily gifted pass rusher. Joens plays a lot like Harrison and would be a great replacement for him. I've seen a nose tackle and wide receiver here. The Steelers will be looking for a nose tackle in the second round, but their isn't one who provides value here. The Steelers resigned Emmanuel Sanders and have Antonio Brown, so a wide receiver isn't a huge need.
18-DAL Jonathan Cooper, G/C
The Cowboys have shown huge interest in Cooper, and not without good reason. Cooper is an elite pass blocker, and the interior of the Cowboys offensive line is horrendous. Tyron Smith is an elite left tackle, while Doug Free is adequate, but between them is Nate Livings, Phil Costa, and Mackenzy Bernadeau, none of whom should start. Cooper would help protect the Cowboys' huge investment in Romo and he'd get one of those 3 guys out of the starting lineup.
The Cowboys have shown huge interest in Cooper, and not without good reason. Cooper is an elite pass blocker, and the interior of the Cowboys offensive line is horrendous. Tyron Smith is an elite left tackle, while Doug Free is adequate, but between them is Nate Livings, Phil Costa, and Mackenzy Bernadeau, none of whom should start. Cooper would help protect the Cowboys' huge investment in Romo and he'd get one of those 3 guys out of the starting lineup.
19-NYG Sylvester Williams, DT
20-CHI Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
21-CIN Alec Ogletree, OLB
22-STL DeAndre Hopkins, WR
23-MIN Datone Jones, DT
24-IND Desmond Trufant, CB
25-MIN Manti Te'o, LB
26-GB Justin Hunter, WR
27-HOU Kevin Minter, LB
28-DEN Jonathan Cyprien, S
29-NE Jamar Taylor, CB
30-ATL Bjoern Werner, DE
31-SF Matt Elam, S
32-BAL Keenan Allen, WR
That was a fun first round. I'll write up explanations for the picks in the second half of the first and post them tonight. I think the biggest loser is the Texans, who need to avoid Lestar Jean starting but probably won't take a chance on Keenan Allen, or the Cardinals, who desperately need offensive line help but will take talent instead. The biggest winner is probably Atlanta or Pittsburgh, who both grab falling pass rushers to replace departing franchise players. For those of you wondering why I didn't project a trade: I'd say there is about a 99% chance that there is a trade in the first round, but I won't project one. I'd say there's a 25% chance that that trade is the Raiders' pick, and a 20% chance that if the Raiders trade their pick, it will be to the Dolphins for a first, second, third, and a future late rounder. I think that's the most likely trade (or maybe the Browns), and yet I have a 5% chance of being right. That's why projecting trades is even more of a crapshoot than not unless you have inside information.
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